After more than 20 painstaking years in the betting, casino and poker industry, one of the things that strikes me about them is in how they share common ground in so many different areas. The process of making money in sports betting is akin to making money in financial trading and especially with the arrival of the betting exchanges a few years ago. Today’s video may seem like it is taking a diversion from poker but it really isn’t when you think about it. I really like Vince Stanzione, I like the way that he speaks, I like his body language and I have yet to see or hear something in his lectures that I don’t like.
One of the key areas for me a few years ago was based around how I started spotting connections between seemingly different fields. If you can understand poker concepts then you can play different forms of poker reasonably well with little experience or theory behind you. I knew that I could play a fair game of PLO before I even played the game, fine so I may not be Phil Galfond but you don’t need to be at the lower levels.
With sports betting, it is often a mistake to go looking for areas where betting firms have made mistakes with their lines. They use odds compilers and information networks that MI5 would be proud of at times so getting information that they haven’t got and trying to decipher data better than them is putting you on very thin ice.
But value can be created in numerous situations but it isn’t to do with betting firms making mistakes but more to do with them knowing full well that certain prices do not reflect the true theoretical probability of the event actually happening but following their own strategic plan. They may be looking for action, they may be looking to deter action or to balance their books or reduce liabilities. They may even be looking to hedge…..who knows.
One thing is clear and this is that if you think that you have spotted value then do not think that the bookmakers must be right and that you must be wrong. If you do a thorough research on how they work and operate and what they look to do in certain situations and why then it will leave you in a better position to understand why certain prices represent value but this in no way means that a betting firm is about to get filled in.
I am going to show another video of Stanzione’s shortly about not following what betting firms want you do and not allowing yourself to be manipulated…..and this certainly does apply to online poker and the misdirection that is pivotal to success in that game.
The Dean online at poker loco
