There has been some sick action in the nosebleeds over the past week with Isildur1 who is probably now Viktor Blom losing an estimated 4.2 million to Brian Hastings. That is 4.2 million of the money that he has won handed back.
I reckon that Isildur1 had been the most analysed poker player on the planet over the past couple of weeks and the high-stakes boys would have been analysing his game. I think that Hastings must have found something that he liked.
This is the thing with the high-stakes online poker games, I really don’t think that it is possible to beat them for too much. What you have to remember is that we are talking about the best players in the world here but not just that…..the best online poker players in the world. So they are all too aware of how to identify weaknesses and then ruthlessly exploit them.
This happens at levels a damn site lower down than nosebleeds. Back when I played $25-$50, I did well originally but made the mistake of hanging around with very good players for too long. They were better than me for numerous reasons, firstly they were more mathematically aware, secondly they ate, slept and breathed the games at that level and thirdly, they weren’t filling in their bloody time writing about the damn game.
So the result was inevitable…..they goosed me good and proper. I cut it short at 20 buy-ins because if one thing is clear after twenty years in gambling…….I know when someone or some people have my number. But I don’t care who you are….Dwan, Sahamies, Townsend……whoever……you can get at these people with enough planning and bankroll.
But they ARE world class players and world class players rapidly adjust and this is when your initiative recedes. I don’t believe that it is possible to outplay these people repeatedly. You need to take them by surprise and you need to be the surprise package. But that quickly evaporates and then the initiative that you had is gone. Then they are responding to you and finding weaknesses in your game and that’s when the money starts flowing back.
If I played the nosebleeds I would go in with a plan. I would watch the games for at least six months very closely and try to find weaknesses in certain players and then go in and try to exploit them. But they wouldn’t know my game and I would play for no more than a month at the most and I would be gone. But there is misdirection thrown about in the nosebleeds and who wouldn’t for potential seven figure incomes.
The point is that you have to be satisfied with a couple of million dollars and then leave. A good game plan against the right targets with the proper bankroll and the discipline to leave sooner rather than later is the way to go. Isildur1 will find that his initiative will diminish and that it is sheer folly to suggest or think that you can keep on beating these guys.
Once they suspect that they are not losing through variance then they will take a step back…..reassess and then come back and it will be you who is the hunted.
See you soon
Carl “The Dean” Sampson at poker loco
